Sheltering in Place and the Likelihood of Nonnatural Death.

Increasing hospitalizations for COVID-19 in the United States and elsewhere have ignited debate over whether to reinstate shelter-in-place policies adopted early in the pandemic to slow the spread of infection. The debate includes claims that sheltering in place influences deaths unrelated to infection or other natural causes. Testing this claim should improve the benefit/cost accounting that informs choice on reimposing sheltering in place. We used time-series methods to compare weekly nonnatural deaths in California with those in Florida. California was the first state to begin, and among the last to end, sheltering in place, while sheltering began later and ended earlier in Florida. During weeks when California had shelter-in-place orders in effect, but Florida did not, the odds that a nonnatural death occurred in California rather than Florida were 14.4% below expected levels. Sheltering-in-place policies likely reduce mortality from mechanisms unrelated to infection or other natural causes of death.

Racial and sociodemographic predictors of COVID-19 compared with influenza, appendicitis, and all-cause hospitalization: retrospective cohort analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether inequities in COVID-19 infection and hospitalization differ from those for common medical conditions: influenza, appendicitis, and all-cause hospitalization. DESIGN: Retrospective study based on electronic health records of three healthcare systems in San Francisco (university, public, and community) examining (1) racial/ethnic distribution in cases and hospitalization among patients with diagnosed COVID-19 (March-August 2020) and patients with diagnosed influenza, diagnosed appendicitis, or all-cause hospitalization (August 2017-March 2020), and (2) sociodemographic predictors of hospitalization among those with diagnosed COVID-19 and influenza. RESULTS: Patients 18 years or older with diagnosed COVID-19 (N = 3934), diagnosed influenza (N = 5932), diagnosed appendicitis (N = 1235), or all-cause hospitalization (N = 62,707) were included in the study. The age-adjusted racial/ethnic distribution of patients with diagnosed COVID-19 differed from that of patients with diagnosed influenza or appendicitis for all healthcare systems, as did hospitalization from these conditions compared to any cause. For example, in the public healthcare system, 68% of patients with diagnosed COVID-19 were Latine, compared with 43% of patients with diagnosed influenza, and 48% of patients with diagnosed appendicitis (p < 0.05). In multivariable logistic regressions, COVID-19 hospitalizations were associated with male sex, Asian and Pacific Islander race/ethnicity, Spanish language, and public insurance in the university healthcare system, and Latine race/ethnicity and obesity in the community healthcare system. Influenza hospitalizations were associated with Asian and Pacific Islander and other race/ethnicity in the university healthcare system, obesity in the community healthcare system, and Chinese language and public insurance in both the university and community healthcare systems. CONCLUSIONS: Racial/ethnic and sociodemographic inequities in diagnosed COVID-19 and hospitalization differed from those for diagnosed influenza and other medical conditions, with consistently higher odds among Latine and Spanish-speaking patients. This work highlights the need for disease-specific public health efforts in at-risk communities in addition to structural upstream interventions.

Neighborhood-level COVID vaccination and booster disparities: A population-level analysis across California.

Objectives: To describe vaccine and booster uptake by neighborhood-level factors in California. Methods: We examined trends in COVID-19 vaccination up to September 21, 2021, and boosters up to March 29, 2022 using data from the California Department of Public Health. Quasi-Poisson regression was used to model the association between neighborhood-level factors and fully vaccinated and boosted among ZIP codes. Sub-analyses on booster rates were compared among the 10 census regions. Results: In a minimally adjusted model, a higher proportion of Black residents was associated with lower vaccination (HR = 0.97; 95%CI: 0.96-0.98). However, in a fully adjusted model, proportion of Black, Hispanic/Latinx, and Asian residents were associated with higher vaccination rates (HR = 1.02; 95%CI: 1.01-1.03 for all). The strongest predictor of low vaccine coverage was disability (HR = 0.89; 95%CI: 0.86-0.91). Similar trends persisted for booster doses. Factors associated with booster coverage varied by region. Conclusions: Examining neighborhood-level factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination and booster rates uncovered significant variation within the large and geographically and demographically diverse state of California. Equity-based approaches to vaccination must ensure a robust consideration of multiple social determinants of health.

Dynamics of racial disparities in all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As research documenting disparate impacts of COVID-19 by race and ethnicity grows, little attention has been given to dynamics in mortality disparities during the pandemic and whether changes in disparities persist. We estimate age-standardized monthly all-cause mortality in the United States from January 2018 through February 2022 for seven racial/ethnic populations. Using joinpoint regression, we quantify trends in race-specific rate ratios relative to non-Hispanic White mortality to examine the magnitude of pandemic-related shifts in mortality disparities. Prepandemic disparities were stable from January 2018 through February 2020. With the start of the pandemic, relative mortality disadvantages increased for American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN), Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander (NHOPI), and Black individuals, and relative mortality advantages decreased for Asian and Hispanic groups. Rate ratios generally increased during COVID-19 surges, with different patterns in the summer 2021 and winter 2021/2022 surges, when disparities approached prepandemic levels for Asian and Black individuals. However, two populations below age 65 fared worse than White individuals during these surges. For AIAN people, the observed rate ratio reached 2.25 (95% CI = 2.14, 2.37) in October 2021 vs. a prepandemic mean of 1.74 (95% CI = 1.62, 1.86), and for NHOPI people, the observed rate ratio reached 2.12 (95% CI = 1.92, 2.33) in August 2021 vs. a prepandemic mean of 1.31 (95% CI = 1.13, 1.49). Our results highlight the dynamic nature of racial/ethnic disparities in mortality and raise alarm about the exacerbation of mortality inequities for Indigenous groups due to the pandemic.

Excess Mortality Among US Physicians During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

This cross-sectional study examines the death rates among active and nonactive physicians aged 45 to 84 years.

Evaluating the association between in-person work and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection through June 2021.

OBJECTIVES: Recent studies have evaluated COVID-19 outbreaks and excess mortality by occupation sectors. Studies on SARS-CoV-2 infection across occupation and occupation-related factors remain lacking. In this study, we estimate the effect of in-person work on SARS-CoV-2 infection risk and describe SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among working adults. METHODS: We used Wave 1 data (May to June 2021) from CalScope, a population-based seroprevalence study in California. Occupation data were coded using the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Industry and Occupation Computerized Coding System. Dried blood spot specimens were tested for antibodies to establish evidence of prior infection. We estimated the causal effect of in-person work on SARS-CoV-2 infection risk using the g-formula and describe SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence across occupation-related factors. RESULTS: Among 4335 working adults, 53% worked in person. In-person work was associated with increased risk of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (risk difference: 0.03; [95% CI: 0.02-0.04]) compared with working remotely. Workers that reported job loss or who were without medical insurance had higher evidence of prior infection. Amongst in-person workers, evidence of prior infection was highest within farming, fishing, and forestry (55%; [95% CI: 26%-81%]); installation, maintenance, and repair (23%; [12%-39%]); building and grounds cleaning and maintenance (23%; [13%-36%]); food preparation and serving related (22% [13%-35%]); and healthcare support (22%; [13%-34%]) occupations. Workers who identified as Latino, reported a household income of <$25K, or who were without a bachelor's degree also had higher evidence of prior infection. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 infection risk varies by occupation. Future vaccination strategies may consider prioritizing in-person workers.

Impacts of Individual Patient Language and Neighborhood Ethnic Enclave on COVID-19 Test Positivity Among Hispanic/Latinx Patients in San Francisco.

BACKGROUND: Given the known disparities in COVID-19 within the Hispanic/Latinx community, we sought to examine the interaction between individual-level and neighborhood-level social determinants of health using linked electronic health record data. METHODS: We examined electronic health record data linked to neighborhood data among Hispanic/Latinx patients tested for COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and February 28, 2021, from 2 large health care systems in San Francisco. Hispanic/Latinx ethnic enclave is measured using an index of census-tract level indicators of ethnicity, nativity, and language. Multilevel logistic regression models examined associations between ethnic enclave and COVID-19 positivity (COVID-19+), adjusting for patient-level sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and health system. Cross-level interactions were used to test whether associations between ethnic enclave and COVID-19+ differed by patient language preference. RESULTS: Among 26,871 patients, mean age was 37 years, 56% had Spanish-language preference, and 21% were COVID-19+. In unadjusted models, patients living in the highest versus lowest Hispanic/Latinx enclave had 3.2 higher odds of COVID-19+ (95% CI, 2.45-4.24). Adjusted, the relationship between ethnic enclave and COVID-19+ was attenuated, but not eliminated (odds ratio: 1.4; 95% CI, 1.13-1.17). Our results demonstrated a significant cross-level interaction, such that the influence of ethnic enclave was modified by patient language preference. For individuals with Spanish-language preference, risk of COVID-19+ was high regardless of neighborhood context, whereas for those with English preference, neighborhood ethnic enclave more than doubled the odds of infection. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that a multilevel and intersectional approach to the study of COVID-19 inequities may illuminate dimensions of health inequity that affect marginalized communities and offer insights for targeted clinical and community-based interventions.

COVID-19 mortality and excess mortality among working-age residents in California, USA, by occupational sector: a longitudinal cohort analysis of mortality surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, workers in essential sectors had higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 mortality than those in non-essential sectors. It is unknown whether disparities in pandemic-related mortality across occupational sectors have continued to occur during the periods of SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccine availability. METHODS: In this longitudinal cohort study, we obtained data from the California Department of Public Health on all deaths occurring in the state of California, USA, from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2021. We restricted our analysis to residents of California who were aged 18-65 years at time of death and died of natural causes. We classified the occupational sector into nine essential sectors; non-essential; or unemployed or without an occupation provided on the death certificate. We calculated the number of COVID-19 deaths in total and per capita that occurred in each occupational sector. Separately, using autoregressive integrated moving average models, we estimated total, per-capita, and relative excess natural-cause mortality by week between March 1, 2020, and Nov 30, 2021, stratifying by occupational sector. We additionally stratified analyses of occupational risk into counties with high versus low vaccine uptake, categorising high-uptake regions as counties where at least 50% of the population were fully vaccinated according to US guidelines by Aug 1, 2021. FINDINGS: From March 1, 2020, to Nov 30, 2021, 24 799 COVID-19 deaths were reported in residents of California aged 18-65 years and an estimated 28 751 (95% prediction interval 27 853-29 653) excess deaths. People working in essential sectors were associated with higher COVID-19 deaths and excess deaths than were those working in non-essential sectors, with the highest per-capita COVID-19 mortality in the agriculture (131·8 per 100 000 people), transportation or logistics (107·1 per 100 000), manufacturing (103·3 per 100 000), facilities (101·1 per 100 000), and emergency (87·8 per 100 000) sectors. Disparities were wider during periods of increased infections, including during the Nov 29, 2020, to Feb 27, 2021, surge in infections, which was driven by the delta variant (B.1.617.2) and occurred during vaccine uptake. During the June 27 to Nov 27, 2021 surge, emergency workers had higher COVID-19 mortality (113·7 per 100 000) than workers from any other sector. Workers in essential sectors had the highest COVID-19 mortality in counties with low vaccination uptake, a difference that was more pronounced during the period of the delta infection surge during Nov 29, 2020, to Feb 27, 2021. INTERPRETATION: Workers in essential sectors have continued to bear the brunt of high COVID-19 and excess mortality throughout the pandemic, particularly in the agriculture, emergency, manufacturing, facilities, and transportation or logistics sectors. This high death toll has continued during periods of vaccine availability and the delta surge. In an ongoing pandemic without widespread vaccine coverage and with anticipated threats of new variants, the USA must actively adopt policies to more adequately protect workers in essential sectors. FUNDING: US National Institute on Aging, Swiss National Science Foundation, and US National Institute on Drug Abuse.

COVID information and masking behaviors in U.S. adolescents: Findings from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study.

Adolescents are particularly vulnerable to health misinformation and are at risk for suboptimal adherence to protective health behaviors in the COVID-19 pandemic. Guided by factors consistent with the theories of planned behavior and rumor transmission, this study sought to analyze the impact of multiple information sources, including social media, television media, internet and parental counseling, on masking behaviors in adolescents. Responses from the December 2020 COVID-19 survey, representing 4,106 U.S. adolescents ages 12-14 from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (ABCD) were analyzed. The majority of parents (61.1%) reported counseling their children on the importance of wearing masks all the time in the past week. A minority of adolescents reported more than one hour of daily exposure to COVID-19 related information on social media (9.1%), the internet (4.3%) and television (10.2%). In unadjusted and adjusted models, greater frequency of parental counseling and exposure to COVID-19 television or social media were associated with 'always masking' behaviors. Our findings provide support for the importance of parent counseling and suggest that socialmedia and television may overall support rather than dissuade protective COVID-19 health behaviors in adolescents.

Excess Mortality in California by Education During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding educational patterns in excess mortality during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may help to identify strategies to reduce disparities. It is unclear whether educational inequalities in COVID-19 mortality have persisted throughout the pandemic, spanned the full range of educational attainment, or varied by other demographic indicators of COVID-19 risks, such as age or occupation. METHODS: This study analyzed individual-level California Department of Public Health data on deaths occurring between January 2016 and February 2021 among individuals aged ≥25 years (1,502,202 deaths). Authors applied ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) models to subgroups defined by the highest level of education and other demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity, U.S. nativity, occupational sector, and urbanicity). Authors estimated excess deaths (the number of observed deaths minus the number of deaths expected to occur under the counterfactual of no pandemic) and excess deaths per 100,000 individuals. RESULTS: Educational inequalities in excess mortality emerged early in the pandemic and persisted throughout the first year. The greatest per-capita excess occurred among people without high-school diplomas (533 excess deaths/100,000), followed by those with a high-school diploma but no college (466/100,000), some college (156/100,000), and bachelor's degrees (120/100,000), and smallest among people with graduate/professional degrees (101/100,000). Educational inequalities occurred within every subgroup examined. For example, per-capita excess mortality among Latinos with no college experience was 3.7 times higher than among Latinos with at least some college experience. CONCLUSIONS: Pervasive educational inequalities in excess mortality during the pandemic suggest multiple potential intervention points to reduce disparities.

Excess natural-cause deaths in California by cause and setting: March 2020 through February 2021.

Excess mortality has exceeded reported deaths from Covid-19 during the pandemic. This gap may be attributable to deaths that occurred among individuals with undiagnosed Covid-19 infections or indirect consequences of the pandemic response such as interruptions in medical care; distinguishing these possibilities has implications for public health responses. In the present study, we examined patterns of excess mortality over time and by setting (in-hospital or out-of-hospital) and cause of death using death certificate data from California. The estimated number of excess natural-cause deaths from 2020 March 1 to 2021 February 28 (69,182) exceeded the number of Covid-19 diagnosed deaths (53,667) by 29%. Nearly half, 47.4% (32,775), of excess natural-cause deaths occurred out of the hospital, where only 28.6% (9,366) of excess mortality was attributed to Covid-19. Over time, increases or decreases in excess natural non-Covid-19 mortality closely mirrored increases or decreases in Covid-19 mortality. The time series were positively correlated in out-of-hospital settings, particularly at time lags when excess natural-cause deaths preceded reported Covid-19 deaths; for example, when comparing Covid-19 deaths to excess natural-cause deaths in the week prior, the correlation was 0.73. The strong temporal association of reported Covid-19 deaths with excess out-of-hospital deaths from other reported natural-cause causes suggests Covid-19 deaths were undercounted during the first year of the pandemic.

COVID-19 Vaccination and Estimated Public Health Impact in California.

Importance: Despite widespread vaccination against COVID-19 in the United States, there are limited empirical data quantifying their public health impact in the population. Objective: To estimate the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths directly averted because of COVID-19 vaccination in California. Design, Setting, and Participants: This modeling study used person-level data provided by the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths as well as COVID-19 vaccine administration from January 1, 2020, to October 16, 2021. A statistical model was used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases that would have occurred in the vaccine era (November 29, 2020, to October 16, 2021) in the absence of vaccination based on the ratio of the number of cases among the unvaccinated (aged <12 years) and vaccine-eligible groups (aged ≥12 years) before vaccine introduction. Vaccine-averted COVID-19 cases were estimated by finding the difference between the projected and observed number of COVID-19 cases. Averted COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths were assessed by applying estimated hospitalization and case fatality risks to estimates of vaccine-averted COVID-19 cases. As a sensitivity analysis, a second independent model was developed to estimate the number of vaccine-averted COVID-19 outcomes by applying published data on vaccine effectiveness to data on COVID-19 vaccine administration and estimated risk of COVID-19 over time. Exposure: COVID-19 vaccination. Main Outcomes and Measures: Number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths estimated to have been averted because of COVID-19 vaccination. Results: There were 4 585 248 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 240 718 hospitalizations, and 70 406 deaths in California from January 1, 2020, to October 16, 2021, during which 27 164 680 vaccine-eligible individuals aged 12 years and older were reported to have received at least 1 dose of a COVID-19 vaccine in the vaccine era (79.5% of the eligible population). The primary model estimated that COVID-19 vaccination averted 1 523 500 (95% prediction interval [PI], 976 800-2 230 800) COVID-19 cases in California, corresponding to a 72% (95% PI, 53%-91%) relative reduction in cases because of vaccination. COVID-19 vaccination was estimated to have averted 72 930 (95% PI, 53 250-99 160) hospitalizations and 19 430 (95% PI, 14 840-26 230) deaths during the study period. The alternative model identified comparable findings. Conclusions and Relevance: This study provides evidence of the public health benefit of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States and further supports the urgency for continued vaccination.

Occupation and Educational Attainment Characteristics Associated With COVID-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity in California.

Importance: Racial and ethnic inequities in COVID-19 mortality may be driven by occupation and education, but limited evidence has assessed these mechanisms. Objective: To estimate whether occupational characteristics or educational attainment explained the associations between race and ethnicity and COVID-19 mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based retrospective cohort study of Californians aged 18 to 65 years linked COVID-19 deaths to population estimates within strata defined by race and ethnicity, gender, age, nativity in the US, region of residence, education, and occupation. Analysis was conducted from September 2020 to February 2022. Exposures: Education and occupational characteristics associated with COVID-19 exposure (essential sector, telework option, wages). Main Outcomes and Measures: All confirmed COVID-19 deaths in California through February 12, 2021. The study estimated what COVID-19 mortality would have been if each racial and ethnic group had (1) the COVID-19 mortality risk associated with the education and occupation distribution of White people and (2) the COVID-19 mortality risk associated with the lowest-risk educational and occupational positions. Results: Of 25 235 092 participants (mean [SD] age, 40 [14] years; 12 730 395 [50%] men), 14 783 died of COVID-19, 8 125 565 (32%) had a Bachelor's degree or higher, 13 345 829 (53%) worked in essential sectors, 11 783 017 (47%) could not telework, and 12 812 095 (51%) had annual wages under $51 700. COVID-19 mortality ranged from 15 deaths per 100 000 for White women and Asian women to 139 deaths per 100 000 for Latinx men. Accounting for differences in age, nativity, and region of residence, if all races and ethnicities had the COVID-19 mortality associated with the occupational characteristics of White people (sector, telework, wages), COVID-19 mortality would be reduced by 10% (95% CI, 6% to 14%) for Latinx men, but increased by 5% (95% CI, -8% to 17%) for Black men. If all working-age Californians had the COVID-19 mortality associated with the lowest-risk educational and occupational position (Bachelor's degree, nonessential, telework, and highest wage quintile), there would have been 43% fewer COVID-19 deaths among working-age adults (8441 fewer deaths; 95% CI, 32%-54%), with the largest absolute risk reductions for Latinx men (3755 deaths averted; 95% CI, 3304-4255 deaths) and Latinx women (2329 deaths averted; 95% CI, 2038-2621 deaths). Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based cohort study of working-age California adults, occupational disadvantage was associated with excess COVID-19 mortality for Latinx men. For all racial and ethnic groups, excess risk associated with low-education, essential, on-site, and low-wage jobs accounted for a substantial fraction of COVID-19 mortality.